Hi friends,
It may come as a surprise to some of you, but one of the Premier League’s best full-backs (who also happens to be one of the most underpaid players in his position) is on the move, and for cheap. Yes, that’s Tyrick Mitchell I’m talking about.
And if you missed the memo, we’re talking about a chart-topping England international who is about to leave Crystal Palace for free in June (or in a few months if United and Liverpool pull the trigger early).
In today’s article, you’ll learn more about the Premier League’s most underpaid elite full-back.
Let’s get into it.
1. How good is Tyrick Mitchell ?
An elite Premier League full-back?
If I was on Mitchell’s negotiation team, I’d start with where he ranks among attacking full-backs. Over the last two seasons, Mitchell ranks 3rd and 4th among Premier League full-backs.
The index scores every Premier League full-back on six pillars, each a weighted set of Wyscout per-90 measures turned into a percentile against the rest of the league that season. For an attacking wing-back the weights are: attacking contribution 30% (xAG, chances created, accurate crosses and passes into the box, possession-adjusted), carrying and progression 25% (progressive runs, dribbles, passes into the final third), defending 25% (defensive duel win rate, sliding tackles, interceptions, recoveries), team goals conceded 10%, security on the ball 5% and aerial duels 5%. On 2025/26 Mitchell is at the 100th percentile for defending, 84th for attacking contribution and 77th for team defensive outcome, which is the 65% of the weighting; he is 24th on carrying, 37th on security, 26th aerially and 6th on build-up passing, which is the rest.
You can debate the construction of the index all you want, but one thing is sure: Mitchell was one of the (unsung) poster boys of Palace punching above their weight in recent seasons, and the data confirms it.
Now, speaking of his metrics brings us to the second point I’d lead the negotiation with.
Elite interceptions & duels won
Over those same two seasons, he has been among the best interceptors of the ball while also posting one of the highest duel win rates. That’s across 71 Premier League full-backs: he wins 68% of his duels (97th percentile) and makes on average around 5 interceptions per 90 (84th percentile). The two have nothing to do with each other across the league, which is exactly why hardly anyone is elite at both. He is. Widen the pool to Europe’s top 5 leagues, and that corner up to the right is still empty.
If we plot his expected assisted goals vs his defensive duels, you’ll see the only player close to him is Reece James. No need to explain much more.
Elite availability
Now another number that catches the eye: reliability. Over the 5 previous seasons, he’s played at least 80% of the club’s minutes. If this means nothing to you, just remember that only 2 full-backs managed that in the top 5 leagues. That’s him and Napoli’s Di Lorenzo.
2. The underpaid star
And yet, despite those impressive stats, he’s paid like a squad player. The figure below ranks the full-backs on my index (horizontal axis) and on their salary (vertical axis). It turns out he is at the top end of the performance spectrum and is paid below the median, but also well below what his level suggests.
Well, you could say full-backs are generally not the best-paid position, sure, but considering his level and his running-down contract, either Palace can keep an elite player without paying a transfer fee, or another Premier League club can get a bargain on an England international.
How big is the gap? Based on a wage model that predicts what a club of Palace’s size would pay a full back of his stature and age, Mitchell should be paid about 64,000£/week (more on the model in the next section). Being on 40,000£ currently, he stands at 37% below the benchmark. Of the 14 Premier League full-backs in the top tenth of the index, he is the furthest below his benchmark. Part of the explanation, of course, could be that he has not signed a new contract since 2022.
Okay, so what did we learn so far? He’s 27, an England international. Tops the rankings for two seasons straight (on our index). Tops the duels won x expected assists chart. And in 3 months could be gone for free (signature-wise). That’s a strong position from which to negotiate a salary bump, isn’t it? Let’s see his options.
3. How much could Mitchell be paid?
If we try to predict a player's salary with a linear model (that we mentioned above), here's what he would be expected to earn at each club that has so far shown interest in him. The model regresses the log of the weekly wage on the position-index percentile, age and age squared, the log of the club's wage bill, the league and the position family. It is fitted on 1,449 outfield players in the top 5 leagues with 900+ league minutes in 2025/26 (Capology wage estimates), and it explains 70% of the variation in wages (R squared of 0.70).
He currently stands at £40,000/week, but the model suggests Palace would need to get him to at least £64,000. With the big boys, though, he could easily triple his wage to around £120,000 per week.
That’s of course according to the model. If we plot him against his potential future teammates, the model’s estimate could even prove somewhat conservative, since he wouldn’t even be the highest earner at United.
Is there a job to walk into?
Well, on the face of it, he looks like the perfect replacement once Luke Shaw is out of the club. Recent rumours suggest they won’t be extending him. So Mitchell looks like he could slot straight in. At Liverpool, he would compete with Kerkez, though on the face of it he might even be the starter.
4. So where should he go?
Okay, so where does that leave us?
Staying at Palace is not a bad option. Far from it. He knows the system, plays basically every minute and, if Palace really want to keep him, the data suggests his wage should move from around £40k to at least the £60-70k range.
However, my model values the same player at around £120k a week at Liverpool and a little above £100k at Manchester United. That is simply because the same level of player gets paid differently depending on the club he plays for.
So financially, the case for moving is pretty obvious.
The harder question is playing time.
Liverpool already have Kerkez, so Mitchell would be walking into proper competition. United looks a bit cleaner. If Luke Shaw does leave, there is a much more obvious slot to walk into, and Mitchell’s profile actually makes sense for a team looking for a reliable, high-volume left-sided defender.
So, if the choice really comes down to Palace, Liverpool or Manchester United?
SalaryData-wise, United probably makes the most sense.
Boom — that was my take on the Premier League’s most underpaid elite full back.
I hope you enjoyed reading it as much as I enjoyed creating it.
Thank you for reading until the end ❤️
Cheers,
Martin
PS. If you liked this piece chances are you’ll also enjoy how Kevin De Bruyne himself used data scientists to secure a 30% increase at 29, or how Man City used a magical data science technique to find his replacement or what Bruno Fernandes’ data science team likely argued in his ongoing negotiations with United.